THREAD: Whether Israel's micro-drone strike against Iran was launched from inside Iran or from neighbouring countries, this very underwhelming response (which was essentially a repeat of similar strikes Israel has conducted over the past few years) demonstrates the following:

Hizbullah’s attack today against a covert IDF military reconnaissance HQ in Arab al Aramshe, which reportedly resulted in 18 casualties so far, is a qualitatively superior and escalatory response to Israel’s assassination of Hizbullah fighters yesterday. It’s also a crucial…

Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate was a massive strategic own-goal. No matter what option it chooses now, it will have lost deterrence capability, or the war, if not both. If it resorts to a lower intensity response like striking offshore Iranian targets, or conducting…

My latest BBC interview where I answer a question from a listener from Belfast on Western double standards regarding Iran and Israel. I also explore the strategic aims and implications behind Iran’s sub-threshold response to Israel.

THREAD: Iran and Hizbullah seem to have mastered the strategy of sub-threshold retaliation—a type of response that straddles the line between deterrence and escalation. 1/